Cold weather drives Poland's retail sector

Poland's retail sector started the year with an unexpectedly strong increase. In January, sales rose by 4.4 percent in real terms compared to the previous year, significantly exceeding market expectations. The main driver was, of all things, the harsh winter weather.

Sales of textiles, clothing, and shoes rose particularly strongly, jumping 17.6 percent year-on-year – almost three times as much as in December. Analysts attribute this to the unusually cold temperatures. After several mild winters, many consumers were apparently not adequately equipped with warm clothing, according to ING.

Other segments also performed positively for the most part. Sales of food, beverages, and tobacco products rose by 4.2 percent, while fuel sales increased by 4.6 percent. Furniture and household appliances rose by 10.5 percent, while pharmaceuticals and cosmetics recorded an increase of 9.6 percent.

Car sales and car parts were the exception, falling by 4.5 percent in January—the first decline since mid-2023.

Solid consumption, but less momentum

As expected, sales declined significantly month-on-month as the strong Christmas business in December came to an end. However, seasonally adjusted figures showed a moderate increase.

Economists continue to expect solid consumption growth for the year as a whole, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. Bank Pekao anticipates a 3.4 percent increase in private consumption, following 3.7 percent in the previous year. Real income growth is likely to weaken, while inflation continues to fall.

The January figures provide little new impetus for monetary policy. In view of the slowdown in inflation, the Polish National Bank is likely to consider a further interest rate cut in March.

This article was produced in cooperation with our partner bne intelliNews.