Russia's luxury market halved

The international market research company Mordor Intelligence puts the volume of the Russian luxury market at 2.2 billion euros for 2025. Artur Gafarov, analyst at the Russian Institute for Entrepreneurship Development, puts the figure at 1.8 billion euros, which is less than half the 2021 level (3.5 billion euros). The luxury market includes clothing and accessories, leather goods and footwear, jewelry, watches, eyewear and premium cosmetics. Moscow luxury department store defies the trend In contrast, the Moscow Central Universal Department Store (ZUM) increased its sales in 2025 for the first time in four years, to 3.9 billion roubles, the equivalent of 45 million euros. This corresponds to an increase of 22.1% compared to 2024. Net profit grew by 68.3% to 2.1 billion roubles, 24 million euros. Mikhail Burmistrov, Managing Director of the Moscow retail research house INFOLine-Analitika, cites several reasons for the ZUM upswing: a broad product range, effective marketing communication and an aggressively expanded online trade, which clearly sets the store apart from its competitors. Anna Lebsak-Kleimans, Managing Director of the Moscow Fashion Consulting Group, explains that the luxury segment is growing and now accounts for 17% of the fashion market compared to 12% in 2022. The consulting firm Bain and the Italian luxury association Altagamma, which compile the global reference report on the luxury market, have not listed Russia separately since 2022. For comparison: according to Statista, the German luxury market was worth around 16 billion euros, i.e. six to eight times larger than the Russian market. Bain expects the global personal luxury market to grow by 3 to 5% in 2026, driven primarily by the USA and stable European demand; Parallel import with a 30% premium Most Western luxury brands have officially left Russia. For example, "Louis Vuitton", which recently only turned over 235,000 rubles, 2700 euros, after 17.3 billion rubles, around 173 million euros, in 2021. Chanel completed the liquidation of its Russian subsidiary in 2024.  Nevertheless, many luxury products reach Russia via parallel imports, albeit at higher prices, which are "on average 30% higher in Moscow than in Singapore and London", as market analyst Anna Lebsak-Kleimans explains. Whoever took over the empty space in the second well-known luxury department store after ZUM, GUM on Red Square, shows the transformation following the withdrawal of the Western brands: The Chinese technology company Huawei moved in instead of Tiffany, the Russian fashion brand 12 Storeez took over the Hermès space, the clothing store Lime took over the Louis Vuitton space. The GUM is stagnating. The retail complex turned over 6.1 billion roubles in 2025, 70 million euros, 1.1% more than in 2024, net profit fell to 387 million roubles, 4.4 million euros, the lowest level in recent years.  36 trademark applications, zero openings Russian media like to comment on new applications at the Rospatent patent office as a return. The reality is mostly different. Chanel has filed a total of 36 trademark applications since 2022, two alone in January 2026, as reported by the Moscow business newspaper Vedomosti. In February 2026, Prada secured the trademark for cosmetics until 2035. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared on February 13, 2026 that Western brands would "definitely return to Russia". However, Natalya Kermedchiyeva, Vice President of the Russian Association of Shopping Centers, expects real steps towards a return "not before 2029". There is only one concrete luxury brand return announcement. It comes from the French luxury brand Dior: the flagship boutiques on Stoleshnikov Street and in GUM are set to reopen on January 1, 2028. Meanwhile, the owners of Russian luxury brands are globalizing; This article first appeared in the exclusive newsletter of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce Abroad The post Russia's luxury market halved appeared first on ostwirtschaft.de.