China displaces Russia as Tajikistan's most important trading partner

Thomas Baier China's trade with Tajikistan increased by 12% to 4.3 billion US dollars in 2025. This is the first time in over 20 years that Beijing has overtaken Russia as Dushanbe's largest bilateral partner. The data comes from the Tajik statistical office and the Times of Central Asia. Imports from China dominate the balance sheet Tajikistan imported Chinese goods worth 3.7 billion US dollars in 2025. By contrast, its own exports to China amounted to only USD 560 million. The deficit shows the imbalance: Tajikistan supplies raw materials and cotton, but buys machinery, vehicles and electronics. The total foreign trade deficit grew to 35% of GDP in 2025, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Higher imports of vehicles, machinery and base metals drove the deficit. Chinese direct investments reach 5.1 billion US dollars China invested 294.1 million US dollars directly in Tajikistan in 2025. This gave Beijing a 57.7% share of all foreign direct investment in the year. Cumulative Chinese investment reached around USD 5.1 billion in mid-2025. The focus areas: Mining, energy, transportation and agriculture. China is also building up capacities in mobile communications and digital infrastructure. Both countries announced closer cooperation on artificial intelligence and green technologies at the end of 2025. Rogun Dam to cost over 1 billion US dollars in 2026 Tajikistan is planning to spend at least 10 billion somoni (over 1 billion US dollars) on the construction of the Rogun hydropower plant in 2026. Finance Minister Faiziddin Qahhorsoda announced the figure in February in Dushanbe. The World Bank is supporting the project with a grant of 350 million US dollars from the International Development Association. A total of 6.29 billion US dollars is needed to complete the project. Ten international financial institutions are examining further investments. After completion in 2033, Rogun is expected to supply 3,780 megawatts and export around 70% of its energy to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. What German investors should consider Tajikistan's GDP grew by 8.4% in 2025, driven by remittances from Russia. The ADB expects growth of only 6.5% in 2026 as remittances normalize. Rogun opens up a concrete supply window for German mechanical engineering and energy technology providers - but competition from China and Turkey dominates the market. The post China displaces Russia as Tajikistan's most important trading partner appeared first on ostwirtschaft.de.