Turkey Faces Additional Costs of $14 Billion Due to Rising Energy Prices

Turkey could face additional import costs of around 14 billion U.S. dollars by the end of 2026 as a result of rising energy prices linked to the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. This is the conclusion of an analysis by the energy think tank Ember, which was published on June 12.

According to the report, higher fossil fuel prices would increase the cost of Turkey’s oil imports by about $7.7 billion. At the same time, the cost of natural gas imports could rise by an additional $6.4 billion.

According to Ember, energy prices have risen significantly since the start of the conflict. Between late February and early May, the price of Brent crude oil rose by about 50%. European natural gas prices rose by 45%, while coal prices increased by 3%.

Since Turkey is heavily reliant on energy imports, these price increases have a direct impact on the country’s trade balance and energy costs.

“Turkey’s net energy imports rose by about $3 billion, or 26%, in the first three months after the conflict broke out, compared with the same period last year,” Ember explained.

Strait of Hormuz Remains a Risk Factor

A major source of uncertainty remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply and a significant portion of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade are transported.

Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to create uncertainty in the energy markets. If oil and gas prices remain at early May levels, Turkey’s additional energy costs could total around 14 billion U.S. dollars by the end of the year.

This would correspond to about 30% of the country’s average annual energy import costs.

High Import Dependency Weighs on the Economy

According to Ember, Turkey meets about two-thirds of its energy needs with imported fossil fuels. Dependence is particularly high for certain energy sources:

• Natural gas: 95% imported
• Crude oil: 83% imported
• Coal: 60% imported

The transportation sector is particularly hard hit by high energy prices. According to Ember’s calculations, road transportation accounted for about one-third of total energy costs in 2025. Industry, private households, and electricity generation each accounted for about 16% of the costs.

Current account deficit declines

Despite rising energy prices, Turkish foreign trade data has recently shown some signs of improvement.

In April, Turkey recorded a current account deficit of 5.7 billion U.S. dollars. This deficit was significantly lower than in April 2025, when a deficit of 8.45 billion U.S. dollars was recorded. At the same time, it was the lowest deficit since November 2025.

The goods trade deficit narrowed from 9.89 billion to 6.82 billion U.S. dollars. Excluding the volatile components of gold and energy, Turkey even achieved a current account surplus of 320 million U.S. dollars.

Nevertheless, the trend in energy prices remains a decisive factor for the country’s economic stability. A sustained escalation in the Middle East could further increase import costs and intensify pressure on inflation, foreign trade, and the currency.