Russia's GDP grew by only 0.6% in the first half of 2026, while industrial production rose by 0.1% over seven months. BOFIT, PSB, and Raiffeisenbank see the outlook as gloomy—growth is now driven almost exclusively by war-related sectors.

VEB.RF dismissed its chief economist, Andrey Klepach, on August 16, three months after a speech at the Nikitsky Club of the Moscow Stock Exchange. What Klepach said there, how Boris Grozovsky, Ben Aris, russland.capital, and Sergei Guriev assess the situation—and why it wasn’t the analysis itself that was new, but rather the fact that it was made public.

Rosstat estimates Russia's GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 at 1.3%—significantly higher than the government, the central bank, and analysts had expected. Some experts are raising their annual forecasts, while others are warning of weak leading indicators.

The extent to which Russia's economy grew in the first half of 2026 is a matter of debate: the IEF-RAS, the VEB Institute, and the Central Bank have differing estimates of GDP growth.

Rosstat data for the first half of 2026: Russia’s gross domestic product grew by only 0.3%. Research institutes and banks are lowering their forecasts—wiiw expert Vasily Astrov speaks of stagnation.

At the same time, it raised its forecast for the increase in consumer prices at the end of 2026 to 6.0% to 7.0%.

Despite even weaker growth, however, analysts do not expect inflation to decline any faster.

To explain this steady growth, the IMF points out that Russia, as an exporter of raw materials and energy, is benefiting from higher world market prices.

The wiiw now expects aggregate economic output to rise by only 0.6%.

Has Russia's economy perhaps qualified for a "final" in competition with other countries?

If the Russian Central Bank had expected a decline in GDP as sharp as that forecast by the ifo Institute, it would likely have cut its key interest rate more sharply on Friday.

Many forecasts for Russia's economic growth this year are currently being revised downward even further.

Russia's GDP remained virtually flat in the first few months of the year, while forecasts continue to be revised downward.

On May 12, the Russian government lowered its forecast for this year’s economic growth from 1.3 percent to 0.4 percent.

The Russian government expects economic growth in 2026 to be significantly weaker than the European Commission and the IMF do.