Gold Exports Down 71.4%: Uzbekistan's Economy Grows, Trade Deficit Doubles
Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”
Uzbekistan’s gold exports plummeted by 71.4% in the first nine months of 2026, from $9.8 billion to $2.8 billion. As a result, the trade deficit nearly doubled, rising from 6.9 to 13.7 billion U.S. dollars. At the same time, the economy grew by 8.3%, a stronger rate than in the previous year. This is shown by preliminary figures from the Uzbek Statistics Committee dated October 29 and 30.
Gold’s share of exports falls from 35.9% to 10.8%
Total exports fell by 5.5% to 25.8 billion U.S. dollars. The decline is attributable solely to gold. Excluding the precious metal, exports of goods rose by 31.6% to 13.3 billion U.S. dollars. Exports of services rose by 31.1% to $9.7 billion. Gold’s share of exports shrank from 35.9% to 10.8% within a year. This is reported by the Uzbek economic portal UzDaily, citing the Statistics Committee. The turnaround has been abrupt. As recently as 2025, gold had been driving export statistics, with a 69.2% increase in the first nine months of that year.
Behind the slump lies a decision by the central bank. It is hardly selling any of the gold from state-owned mines anymore; instead, it is hoarding it. According to the Uzbek news portal Kun.uz, the country exported gold worth only $1.5 billion in April and $1.3 billion in July. In August, the figure was zero. According to Kun.uz, the central bank’s gold sales were nearly three times lower than in the same period last year. Gold reserves rose from 391.9 metric tons at the beginning of January to 438.6 metric tons as of September 1. In the first half of the year alone, the central bank purchased approximately 50 metric tons. According to data from the World Gold Council cited by UzDaily, this was the second-largest increase among all central banks worldwide. “We are a gold-producing country, and gold has long accounted for a significant portion of our reserves,” Central Bank Governor Timur Ishmetov said in September, according to UzDaily. At the same time, the bank aims to diversify its investments more broadly: “Our goal is further diversification: by asset class, by currency, and by counterparty.”
8.3% Growth: Trade, Transportation, and Construction See Double-Digit Increases
Gross domestic product reached 1,755.5 trillion soums from January through September. According to the Azerbaijani news agency Trend, that amounts to approximately 146 billion U.S. dollars. The real growth of 8.3% exceeds the previous year’s figure of 8.0%. In 2024, the figure for the same period was 6.1%. Per capita economic output rose by 6.4% in real terms to 44.7 million soum, equivalent to approximately 3,750 U.S. dollars. Growth was broadly distributed. Trade and hospitality grew by 15.1%, transportation, warehousing, and IT services by 18.1%, and construction by 12.5%. Manufacturing grew by 8.1%, and its share of GDP rose to 26.8%. Agriculture grew by only 4.6%, and its share fell from 16.2% to 15.5%. The manufacturing sector contributed 373.1 trillion soum, an increase of 8.6%. The IT sector remains small but is growing rapidly: its share of GDP rose from 2.3% to 2.7% within two years. Small businesses account for 53.8% of economic output. The Statistics Committee has revised the figures since 2022, based on the most recent population and agricultural censuses. According to the Statistics Committee, the shadow economy fell from 23.9% to 21.8% of GDP.
Imports rose by 15.7%; nearly one in three import dollars went to China
Imports climbed by 15.7% to $39.6 billion. Of this amount, $34.4 billion was for goods and $5.2 billion was for services. China is by far the largest trading partner: Trade volume rose by 27.6% to $15.2 billion, accounting for 23.2% of total foreign trade. Of the imports, $12.9 billion—or 32.5%—came from China. Russia follows with total trade volume of $10.5 billion, and Kazakhstan with $4.3 billion and a 22.3% increase. The picture is different for exports. The most important buyer is Russia, with $3.5 billion, or 13.6% of exports. Behind it are China with $2.3 billion and Afghanistan with $1.4 billion. Uzbekistan thus sells primarily to its neighbors and imports from China.
The central bank thus holds the key to the balance of payments. If it sells its hoarded gold at the current high world market price, the export statistics will quickly return to positive territory. The 46.7 metric tons accumulated since January alone are worth several billion U.S. dollars at current price levels. If it continues to hoard gold, the country will have to finance the record deficit through loans and direct investments. This increases pressure on the soum and on the external debt. In the medium term, another figure matters: exports of goods excluding gold are growing at a faster rate—31.6%—than imports. If this trend continues, the gold dilemma will lose its significance. The figures for the final quarter will show which path Tashkent chooses.
Source: UzDaily (GDP), UzDaily (foreign trade), UzDaily (gold), Kun.uz, UzDaily (Ishmetov), Trend (all EN)