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Second-quarter growth beat the Central Bank's own expectations, but its research department now flags a third-quarter slowdown driven by lost capacity rather than weak demand; meanwhile the Finance Ministry returns to the primary debt market after a six-week pause, grain export duties go to zero, and housing pre-sales cool.
GDP grew 1.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, above expectations, returning output to the level of the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the "What Trends Say" bulletin from the Bank of Russia's research and forecasting department. The authors expect growth to slow in the third quarter, attributing this to the temporary loss of production and logistics capacity on the supply side rather than to cooling demand: corporate lending and household consumption stayed elevated in July and August, and August business surveys improved. The consumer sector and state-order manufacturing remain the main growth drivers, while slowing wage growth is expected to produce flatter but more durable consumption. For context, GDP rose 1% in 2025 after 4.9% in 2024; the Economy Ministry cut its 2026 forecast to 0.4% in May from 1.3%, the Central Bank cut its July forecast to 0.0–1.0% from 0.5–1.5%, and analysts polled by Interfax in early August see 0.5% this year and 1.2% in 2027.
Source: Interfax, 1 Sep 2026
The Finance Ministry will auction floating-rate federal bonds on 2 September, its first sovereign placement since July. The paper is issue 29031, maturing 29 July 2042, with a total issue size of 1 trillion rubles at par (about $11.5 billion at the Central Bank's 2 September rate of 86.75 rubles to the dollar) and 64 coupon periods; the ministry will offer the volume still available and size the allotment by demand and by the premium bidders require over prevailing market yields. The ministry suspended placements on 20 July, citing market conditions, after yields on long OFZ rose to roughly 16% — a level Yuri Tulinov, head of bond research at T-Investments, called too expensive for the ministry to borrow at. The choice of a floater rather than fixed-coupon paper indicates the ministry is still unwilling to lock in long-dated fixed yields.
Source: Forbes, 1 Sep 2026
The Bank of Russia extended its limits on foreign currency cash withdrawals by six months, to 9 March 2027. Holders of accounts or deposits opened before 9 March 2022 may withdraw up to their balance as of that date, capped at $10,000 or the euro equivalent and only if they have not already used the allowance; the remainder is paid in rubles, and the ban on banks charging fees for currency withdrawals runs for another six months. Non-resident legal entities remain barred from taking out cash dollars, euros, pounds sterling and yen until 9 March 2027, while resident companies may draw those currencies only for business travel. The regulator attributes the extension to sanctions that prevent Russian financial institutions from buying Western banknotes. The limits date from 9 March 2022 and have been rolled over repeatedly, most recently on 6 March 2026.
Source: Forbes, 1 Sep 2026
A government subcommission on customs tariffs backed suspending the floating export duty on wheat, barley and maize, taking the rate to zero until 31 December 2026, the Economy Ministry said; a draft decree goes to the cabinet shortly. Duties on sunflower oil and meal will be frozen at their August 2026 levels of 7,748 rubles per tonne of oil (about $89) and 312 rubles per tonne of meal. Deputy Economy Minister Vladimir Ilyichev said the measures support grain and oilseed producers and exporters that have run into difficulties shipping their output, citing the need to rebuild logistics. The damper mechanism has been in force since 2 June 2021 and sets the duty at 70% of the gap between a base and an indicative price, with base prices currently 18,000 rubles per tonne for wheat (about $207) and 17,875 rubles for barley and maize; the floating duties had been extended to 31 August 2028 only last October.
Source: Interfax, 2 Sep 2026
Buyer deposits into escrow accounts, the funding channel for project-financed residential construction, totalled 1.2 trillion rubles in the second quarter (about $13.8 billion), 12% less than in January–March but 6% higher year-on-year, according to Central Bank data reported by Kommersant. The decline follows unusually strong sales early in the year, pulled forward ahead of the tightening of the subsidised family mortgage on 1 February to one loan per family: Rosreestr registered 120,000 equity participation contracts in April–June, down 10% from 133,000 in the first quarter. Releases of escrow funds to developers on project completion fell 23% quarter-on-quarter to 1 trillion rubles, with the share of apartments already sold at handover dropping to 65% from 76% in the first quarter — a build-up of unsold completed stock that tightens developer cash flow.
Source: Kommersant, 1 Sep 2026